Die Werkself Will Be a Team to Watch This Season
Bayer Leverkusen looks to build on their great end to last season and finish in the top four for 2023-24
Bayer Leverkusen to Finish Top 4 of Bundesliga (+115 at Draft Kings)
My original bet was for Leverkusen to finally end Bayern Munich’s run of dominance in Bundesliga (they’ve won the league the past 11 seasons), but in the interval between my personal bet and the publication of this newsletter, the odds decreased from 50 to 1 to 40 to 1. Instead, we’re taking Die Werkself at plus odds to finish no lower than fourth. Top four is a big distinction in Bundesliga as those positions automatically qualify for the next seasons UEFA Champions League competition. After finishing 6th in the division last season, I’m buying as much Leverkusen stock as I can for this year.
While there are still a couple of weeks until the dust finally settles on the summer transfer window and we know for sure what the rosters will look like until January, the current lineup manager Xabi Alonso can run out every week is formidable and could compete for honors in any competition. Retaining Alonso as manager was the first step for a team looking to contend at the highest levels of club soccer as he was rumored for the Tottenham job since filled by Ange Postecoglou. Even though he is a former LFC player, I can’t help but grudgingly admire Alonso. After a brilliant playing career, he is one of the rising stars in management. He’s the most recent iteration of Basque managers taking the world by storm. Assuming Leverkusen achieve at the scale most expect them to, Xabi Alonso will continue to be one of the most sought-after managers for any big club seeking a new leader.
Die Werkself, like most German clubs not called Bayern Munich, often buy young talent and develop them with an eye to sell them on to one of the behemoths of the industry (by virtue of their massive TV rights contracts, just about every Premier League team qualifies as a behemoth). This is evidenced by Leverkusen’s inability to retain exciting young winger Moussa Diaby who left for Aston Villa in England for Є55 million. However, as of publication, they have been able to keep playmaking wunderkind Florian Wirtz despite interest in him from many teams including reigning Premier League and Champions League winners Manchester City. Marauding wing-back Jeremie Frimpong is also back for another season.
The sale of Diaby was also able to finance the purchase of some much-needed reinforcements. This summer has seen known commodities like former Gladbach star Jonas Hoffman join the squad. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Hoffman should be able to replace a lot of the production Leverkusen will be missing without Diaby. Grimaldo joins for free after several years as a stalwart in the Benfica lineup. Young striker Victor Boniface impressed this preseason and could be a force leading the line this season. Finally, to add some steel to the midfield, Alonso brought in Swiss national team captain Granit Xhaka from Arsenal.
The league will be tough this season. Bayern Munich have recently added Harry Kane to help in their title defense. Despite losing Jude Bellingham (for a massive fee from Real Madrid), Dortmund is always going to compete in the Bundesliga with proven stars and rising young talent. RB Leipzig will be expected to challenge for the European Qualifying places as usual. They’ve added one of my favorite young talents in Xavi Simons. Additionally, after one of the best seasons in their history, Union Berlin are hungry to build on their achievement in 2022-23. Others like Eintracht Frankfurt, Gladbach and Freiburg could challenge Leverkusen if things break their way.
Despite Bayern’s dominance at the top, it is usually very competitive in the rest of the division. There will be a lot of challenges along the way, but I think Bayer Leverkusen finishing top 4 and earning one of the coveted Champions League places provide great value at the current price.