Putin's People, Kanye West, and NFL Season Win Total Over/Under
Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West
By: Catherine Belton
Publication Date: April 2, 2020 Date Finished: February 9, 2021
Rating: 8/10
I was born in 1991, the same year the last embers of the former Soviet Union finally fizzled out and the world reached the so called “end of history”. Putin’s People starts in the waning days of the USSR with a lower to mid-level KGB officer working in Dresden, East Germany. That agent was Vladimir Putin, the man who would go on to serve as President of the new state of Russia, then serve as the kingmaker behind the scenes at the Kremlin, before ultimately taking over control in name as well as deed again.
In the late 1980s, many KGB members could see the writing on the wall regarding the collapse of the Soviet Union. When Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, began liberalizing the economy to allow for more market functions and wealth creation, a cabal of KGB officers, including Mr. Putin, began burning their records and siphoning as much state money as they could get their hands on to offshore accounts and friendly businesses. When everything came crashing down, the KGB officers had the funds and contacts in the criminal underworld to maintain an influence in the running of Russia; they would grow this influence until they had ultimate power, with one of their own as the country’s President and strong man leader.
Putin started his meteoric rise from run of the mill KGB officer to President by serving as the deputy mayor for Anatoly Sobchak, a popular reform minded politician in St Petersburg. Even during this early stage, Putin was known for schemes involving the sale of the city’s natural resources (mostly metals and oil) to foreign firms in exchange for aid to the city, which ended up in the coffers of the network of former KGB officers instead of going to help the impoverished city. Despite the great deal of suspicions surrounding these corrupt dealings, Putin managed to remain untarnished by any of it. Throughout his early career, as he climbed to the top of Russian political power, he would use his close connections with Sobchak to enhance his appeal to the many reform-minded Russians.
After his spell in St Petersburg (where the off-shore accounts continued to pile up, Putin made his move to the center of power serving in varying roles for President Boris Yeltsin at the Kremlin. This was the era of oligarchs in Russia and vast amounts of wealth in very few hands. Putin subtly ingratiated himself with Yeltsin and eventually became deputy Prime Minister. When the graft and corruption finally caught up with Yeltsin and his inner circle, he turned to Putin to take over as President to protect him, his family, and associates from prosecution and allow them to keep their ill begotten fortunes. Putin and Yeltsin worked out a plan where Yeltsin would resign his office, making Putin acting president. With so much money and influence at his disposal, Putin cruised to victory in the 2000 election to become President in his own right. This is when things really took off for Putin and his former state security cronies.
President Putin was ruthless in getting the wealthiest of the oligarchs to bow to his wishes. If they submitted to his political power, he would allow them to keep their businesses and fortunes, but if there was any hint of challenge to his authority, he would ruthlessly use the full force of the state to attack them. Putin used (and grew) the slush fund controlled by the former KGB clique in his early years to grow his power and sow discord in the opposition to his rule.
Putin grew his war chest of ill acquired funds through some famous financial scandals, including the Moldovan Laundromat and the mirror trading scheme facilitated by Deutsche Bank. He used this wealth not only to grow his power at home, but to also spread his influence on his neighbors and the west. He influenced the suppression of the anti-Russia movement in neighboring Ukraine and helped fund the Russian separatists in the Crimea. Putin and several allies were also implicated in funding fringe political organizations and misinformation campaigns to try to destabilize Western governments and institutions.
The book is a very detailed account of so many different nefarious machinations that it is tough to cover them all. While it is dense with stories and details, it maintains its readability and is a page-turner even when getting into the weeds of financial issues.
Catherine Belton’s writing is incredible, but what stands out most is her incredible courage to pursue this story for years amid threats to herself and many of her sources either dying in mysterious circumstances or being convicted in show trials and sentenced to dozens of years in a Russia gulag. In recent weeks, one of the figures in the book (and owner of the London based association football team Chelsea FC) Roman Abramovich is now suing Ms. Belton and her editors for libel in the UK, which has laws very favorable to plaintiffs. So, consider buying and reading this book to support more global freedoms for members of the press in addition to its being a good book.
My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy By: Kanye West
Release Date: November 22, 2010 Date Listened: July 6, 2020
Rating:
10/10
Kanye West is set to release his tenth studio album, Donda, in the coming days. In anticipation of his new work, I decided to go back to my favorite Kanye album of all time last month, 2010’s My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy.
Kanye West has become a very polarizing figure in the last few years (even more so than in his early career) between his dealings with the Kardashian family and his dead-on-arrival campaign for President of the United States in 2020. Whether you love him or hate (I fall into the love camp for the most part even after his run in with Taylor Swift at the VMA awards of 2009) his genius as a rapper and music producer over the past two decades is undeniable. No matter what people think of him or what other controversies he may become embroiled with in the future, MBDTF will go down as one of the great works of art of the 21st century, and no one can ever take that away from him.
MBDTF was released in during my freshman year of college, and I think it is a universally recognized fact that the music popular during one’s own college years is, indisputably, the best music ever made. I remember just hanging out with friends and not doing much of anything productive the first time I heard the single “All of the Lights” and immediately relistened to it about 5 times in a row. I thought it might be the best individual song I had ever heard (apart from “Born to Run”). Later, I went on to listen to the whole album and was amazed. It was the soundtrack to the end of my first semester of college; I barely played anything else for a couple of months.
Kanye’s catalogue is stacked with great songs and albums (808s and Heartbreaks isn’t really my jam, but even it is worth a listen if you’ve only heard the singles) but MBDTF is undeniably his magnum opus. Kanye brings in the heavy hitters to add even more power to this album. Guest appearances include Jay-Z (who he would later team up with for the great album Watch the Throne), Alicia Keys, Elton John, Kid Cudi, Nicki Minaj, Rhianna and several more talented artists.
The album also contains my favorite rap lyric of all time in the first track “Dark Fantasy” which I use to taunt my friends that are Cubs or Packers fans. In the song, Mr. West states that a person has “too many Urkels on your team, that’s why your wins low.” The album is just a great example of a musical genius reeling off hit after hit.
NFL Season Win Total Over/Unders
When dealing with sports betting, I try to stick to what I know, notably, basketball, soccer, and baseball. I grew up playing all three of these sports for years and feel I have a good grasp of teams’ strategies and the nuances of the game that make it so I’m not just guessing when placing bets. I love watching Australian football and am a die-hard Adelaide Crows fan, but I really have no idea what is going on during their games. It looks to me like all the guys are just running around tackling and kicking and hoping things work out. Therefore, as much as I try to watch AFL matches, I very seldom bet on them.
I make an exception about betting on things I don’t understand when it comes to the NFL. My American football career lasted all of three days of a summer camp and ended with a torn-up knee and a return to the soccer pitch the next season. Like most Americans, I spend most fall Sundays in front of my TV watching the Bears or the NFL Redzone channel. I watch highlight breakdowns, listen to podcasts, and read articles about football and the NFL, but I still would not say I “know” the sport well at all. In fact, the past couple years, a profitable NFL betting strategy would have been to find out what my picks are and just fade everything. I’m like the guy in The Big Short that prompts Steve Carell to instruct his friends to “short EVERYTHING that guy has touched” after having lunch with him.
This season also has the added wrinkle of each team playing a 17 instead of the regular 16 game schedule for the first time. With that disclaimer out of the way, here are a few season win total over/unders for this coming season that I think are a good value.
Arizona Cardinals over 8 wins for 2021 season (-130 at Fanduel)
Kliff Kingsbury is the definition of failing upward. Despite being fired after several pedestrian years as the head coach of his at his alma mater Texas Tech University and signing on to be the Offensive Coordinator of another college football team, Kingsbury was given the head coaching job with the Arizona Cardinals before the 2019 season. Further evidence of his charmed life appeared during the 2020 virtually held NFL Draft when a picture of him relaxing in his awe-inspiring spread of land went viral.
Kingsbury was hired because he was (and remains to be) considered an offensive football play calling mind on par with the likes of Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers and Sean McVay of the LA Rams (two of the Cardinals division rivals they play twice each season). His task was to groom the Heisman trophy winning, number one overall draft pick quarterback Kyler Murray. The team, like Murray, would take some lumps in the 2019 season, ending with just 5 wins. That offseason, the front office made a point of getting support for their franchise cornerstone at QB and fleeced the Houston Texans in a trade for star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins. The offense looked sharp to start the season, but then Murray suffered an injury and the team struggled for the rest of the season as he played at less than his best.
The defense, coordinated by Vance Joseph, is coming off a solid season, but the unit is comprised of good but ageing players. They added to a veteran core by signing former Defensive Player of the Year, but oft injured, defensive end JJ Watt. They are on shaky ground as well with their star pass rusher Cameron Jones, who is unsatisfied with his contract and wishes to be traded. The defensive backfield could be a weakness with future Hall of Fame cornerback (in my opinion) Patrick Peterson moving to Minnesota and the ageing players seem to be in line for the majority of playing time. This year the pressure will be on them to show they have the talent required to make a push for the playoffs. Despite being in a very tough division, I think 8-9 (and a push) is the minimum to expect out of this team.
Minnesota Vikings under 9 wins for 2021 season (-105 at Draftkings)
On paper, the Vikings are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The defense suffered through a crazy number of injuries last season and still had a middle of the road performance (though as we know, oftentimes in the National Football League, the most important ability is availability). The front seven is absolutely sick and should be the bane of quarterbacks in the NFC North. This should help a secondary that has some talent but also some question marks. The addition of former All Pro Patrick Patterson should help, and Mike Zimmer will put them all in situations to succeed.
The offense has some great skill position players with star running back Dalvin Cook, wide receivers Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson, the breakout rookie from last season. The offensive line is solid if not spectacular. Their depth isn’t great across the board on offense, but if the first-string guys stay healthy, it is a talented group.
One might ask why I am betting the under on team I think is so talented on both sides of the ball. The reason is 100 percent because of quarterback Kirk Cousins. I think Cousins is, simply put, a bad quarterback. While surrounding the position with talent can mitigate the negative consequences of subpar play, quarterback remains by far the most important position in the league. Cousins is currently on the COVID inactive list and will not be vaccinated at any point during the season. This could lead to him missing some games, which I think might actually benefit the team even though I don’t think Kellan Mond, a rookie from Texas A&M, is ready to play in the league yet. The whole pick here is really just me being a Cousins hater. If he gives them a level of play from the quarterback position that resembles competence, I think Minnesota is a surefire playoff team and will win double digit games.
Chicago Bears over 7.5 wins for 2021 season (+100 at DraftKings)
I recommend putting even less faith in this pick than any of my other NFL picks. I pride myself on being a good Bayesian in most aspects of my life. I like to start with a good idea of a subject and adjust my thinking according to new information. However, all rationality goes out the window when it comes to my favorite sports teams. My teams are always at one of two poles. They are either one of the greatest dynasties ever assembled in their sport (Iowa State Football, Chicago White Sox and now Bears) or possibly the worst team in the league that will be lucky to win a single game (Iowa State Basketball, Chicago Bulls and Blackhawks, Everton, and Adelaide Crows).
After sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record last season, the Bears showed their true abilities in the wild card round with a 21-9 loss that was not nearly as close of a contest as the score implies. The vaunted defense of the year before was adequate but failed to secure the take-aways and big plays for which a Chicago Bears defense is traditionally known. The offense struggled behind quarterback play from Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles that was less than spectacular. The offensive line struggled to stay healthy and the five that were available week to week could be very inconsistent. Running back and special teams standout Tarik Cohen suffered a torn ACL early in the season and left a diminished group of players at the skill positions. Running back David Montgomery improved as the season went along and wide receiver Allen Robinson is one of the best in the business, but outside of them, the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends did not produce like Coach Nagy needed them to.
You might wonder what caused the sudden turnaround of my opinion of the Bears from below average team to a contender. The answer is simple: the 2021 NFL draft. This spring, the much-maligned general manger Ryan Pace had a great draft trading up to get franchise changing quarterback Justin Fields and left tackle Teven Jenkins. While all signs point to free agent acquisition Andy Dalton being the starting quarterback for week 1 this year, the draft completely changed attitudes around Halas Hall. Taking off my Bears fan hat for a second, it looks like this year will be another year in the middle of the pack in the NFC, but the enthusiasm flowing from the trade for Fields has me too excited and I’m, probably irrationally, confident that this Bears team makes the playoffs and maybe even wins a game once there.
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