Turmoil, Politics, and B-ball
A review of the 2021 Booker Prize winning novel, a Danish political drama, and a couple picks that hopefully won't lose you money.
The Promise By: Damon Galgut
Publication Date: June 17th 2021 Date Finished: March 8, 2022
Rating: 6/10
This feels like a good time to remind everyone that my rating is a subjective measure of how much I liked a work and that it does not necessarily reflect the quality of the work or how “good” I think it is. Damon Galgut’s The Promise was recognized with the 2021 Booker Prize. Galgut is a brilliantly talented writer, and The Promise is a moving work. Unfortunately for me, I chose to read it at an inopportune time. While I normally am up for a bleak (some might even say depressing) novel, March of 2022 was not one of those moments. I read Cormac McCarthy’s masterpiece Blood Meridian when I was in a better place mentally and it remains one of my favorite books to this day. If I would have been in a better position regarding my mental health when reading The Promise, I imagine I could have felt similarly about it.
The Promise follows the Swart family (South Africans of Afrikaner descent) and their family farm through the gathering of the family for the funerals of four of its members. The book begins in the 1980s with the death of Ma. Ma converted back to Judaism shortly before her death from a debilitating, terminal illness. Her husband, Manie, was an alcoholic philanderer prior to their youngest child, Amor, being almost killed in a lightning strike. He promised God he would reform if he would save his daughter from her injuries. After his conversion, he falls under the sway of a Dutch Reformed minister who sees in Manie a chance to enrich his congregation, and more importantly himself.
Manie’s newfound religiosity combined with Ma’s return to the religion of her childhood lead to a lot of consternation in the relationships of the already tumultuous connections of the Swart family. The “golden boy” eldest child Anton is off fulfilling his military service requirement at the start of the novel. He and Manie have had a strained relationship in the years leading up to the book and the first section sees even more confrontation between the two that leads to them never speaking again. The middle child, Astrid, tries to maintain proper behavior and decorum while fighting inner demons she suppresses with an eating disorder. Meanwhile, the youngest child Amor seems to be a little off to everyone. She goes about life observing everything, but rarely giving her opinion on much.
The novel gets its title from Ma’s dying wish. The Swart’s Black African housekeeper Salome worked for the family for as long as anyone could remember. She aided Ma during the worst of her illness. As Ma’s time grew short, she made Manie promise that she would give the title of the house on the farm Salome lived in over to Salome’s family. Manie agreed to this promise, and it was witnessed by Amor. While Amor presses for this promised to be followed through upon, she is dismissed by Pa.
We return to the Swart farm about a decade later after Pa was convinced by his minister (who, in the intervening years, has built a new church on the property of the Swart farm) to try to set a world record for the longest time living in an enclosure with poisonous snakes (a lot of the wealth of the Swart family comes from Pa’s co-ownership of a reptile park called Scaley City). One of the snakes inevitably bites Pa directly in an important artery and he is unable to survive the venom that entered his system.
Not only has the Swart family changed in the years since Ma’s funeral, but all South Africa has as well. Apartheid is now a thing of the past and Nelson Mandela is President. Amor comes back for Pa’sfuneral from London and notices how different the streets of Pretoria both look and feel since she was last there as a young girl. Black and White South Africans are mingling on the streets in a way that would have been unimaginable a decade before.
Amor returns much the same internally as when she left, but her reception is much different. She has matured from an awkward child into a beautiful adult. The seeming aloofness of her childhood now seems more of an allure than a personality defect. She once again urges her siblings to allow through on the promise to Salome. She notes that before, Aton used the laws regarding Black Africans and property transfers as being prohibitive, but now the laws have changed. Amor’s protestations are once again unsuccessful.
The family continues to see more tragedy and death in the coming years. The farm and Salome’s house remain a point of contention as the years grow. At the end of the novel there seems to be a final resolution to the fate of the Swart family and Salome’s house, but in the constantly changing socio-political landscape of South Africa, it is hard to be sure what will ultimately be the outcome.
Galgut employs an omniscient narrator that at times inherits the outlook of characters both major and minor. Sometimes this change of perspective can happen in a single paragraph. Galgut also abstains from the use of quotation marks. Some passages can be left to interpretation as to whether they are dialogue or the internal thoughts of a character. This is a difficult style to execute, but Galgut makes it work. There were a few times I had to reread some sentences to better understand the context and you will also want Google handy while reading to understand some of the allusions to South African politics and history as well as the use of slang.
The Promise is one of the great literary talents in the world at the top of his game, just make sure you are mentally prepared for what you will be reading.
Borgen Season 1
Release Dates: September 26, 2010- November 28, 2010 Date Finished: March 1, 2022
Rating: 9/10
A lot of people have compared Borgen to the American show The West Wing, which I have never watched despite being a fan of The West Wing showrunner Aaron Sorkin and being a fan of political dramas in general. Since Borgen takes place in Denmark and not the US, it obviously tells the story of a Prime Minister and the interactions between many parties in a parliamentary system. I’m a loyal reader of The Economist magazine, so it wasn’t hard to follow, but if all you know are US politics, it might be a good idea to read up on how Denmark’s constitution is set up and how their government operates both in theory and practice.
The series starts with a general election and the incumbent Prime Minster Lars Hesselboe is the front runner. Leader of the Moderates, the show’s protagonist Brigitte Nyborg, pulls the party’s support from the opposition when the Labor Party chief, the unscrupulous Michael Laugensen, takes a hard line on not allowing asylum seekers into Denmark.
Things take a turn when we discover Hesselboe used government funds for one of his ill wife’s shopping sprees abroad (Hesselboe was trying to avoid a panic attack from his wife and the government credit card was all he had on him, he planned to transfer the funds from his personal account once back in Denmark). Hesselboe’s chief of staff was having an affair with TV1 journalist Katrine Fonsmark. While visiting Katrine, the chief of staff dies of a heart attack. In a state of shock, Fonsmark calls Kasper Juul, her on-again, off-again romantic partner, to set this issue right. Juul happens to be the spin doctor of the Moderates and he sees the evidence of Hesselboe’s improper use of government funds and hopes to use them to the advantage of his employers.
Nyborg declines to use the issue for political advantage, so Juul leaks the documents to Laugensen. The fallout sees Nyborg elected as the first woman to serve as Prime Minister in Denmark. Nyborg immediately is faced with the first of many conflicts between her ideals and the desire to maintain power and run an efficient government. She fires Juul for disobeying her orders and leaking the information about Hesselboe. Before long she realizes that Kasper’s pragmatism will be needed in running the country and brings him back into the fold.
In addition to the regular horse-trading political drama, the show also follows the personal lives and difficulties the events cause Nyborg, her family, Juul, Fonsmark, and others. Brigitte’s husband Philip has sublimated his ambition to be a titan of industry so that his wife can pursue politics. He is very discontent, however, with his job as a business professor and wants to renegotiate the agreement he and Brigitte had come to before she became Prime minister. This causes tumultuous relations between the couple that often spill over into the lives of their two young children.
Juul and Fonsmark seemingly have a very deep history that is really only hinted at in the show. The couple are often at loggerheads; Katrine’s work at the News Channel and Kasper’s work for the government can come into conflict. The pair are often selective with the knowledge, both personal and professional, that they wish to share with each other. Several times it seems they have reached a detente where they can work professionally together and possibly rekindle their romantic relationship only for a new issue to divide them once again.
Political and interpersonal crises come and go throughout the season. The show keeps you engaged in all the different subplots and leaves you wanting more. I’m looking forward to Season 2 (pretty sure it is also available to stream on Netflix).
Winners
I want to apologize to anyone that followed my suggestion about PSG in the last issue. That was an absolute nightmare. Like they’ve done literally every time before in the Champions League, Paris Saint-Germain completely folded when the pressure was on most. They were the main culprits in Benzema’s three goals. It should have been obvious to me (and anyone who has been following soccer the last decade) how things would play out. Maybe this newsletter should be renamed Tim’s Reviews and Bets to Fade. I do still stand by the reasoning for my Gonzaga pick despite their upset in the round of 16. I’ll stick with what I know better this week and give you an NBA and MLB pick.
NBA Champions
Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals (+950 at Fanduel)
The military genius Fredrick the Great of Prussia famously said, “He who defends everything defends nothing.” I’m sure that remains sound advice, but Fredrick died in the 18th century before Dr Naismith (probably with the assistance of ESPN commentator Hubie Brown) invented basketball and therefore he didn’t have the privilege of watching the 2022 Boston Celtics prevent their opponents from scoring points.
Since the turn of the year, Boston has been as good as any team in the NBA led by a stout defense that makes opponents earn absolutely everything they get. The team that was out of even the play-in tournament spots through a tough November and December have roared back to life and are in second place in the Eastern Conference as of writing (4:30pm on 4/5/22). Many inside and outside of Boston were speculating if first year Head Coach Ime Udoku was alienating the team’s young stars, and if long time Head Coach and current General Manager Brad Stevens had really messed up his first big decision when he hired him.
It took some time, but now the Celtics are fully bought into the system and currently boast the league’s top defensive rating, allowing only 106.1 points for every 100 opponent possessions. They complement this outstanding defense with a solid offensive rating of 113.2. Their net rating of 7.0 is second only to the Phoenix Suns who have had the league’s best record virtually the entire season.
Many NBA followers (both fans of the Celtics and neutrals) panned the trade deadline deal that brought Derrick White from the San Antonio Spurs in exchange for Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, a 2022 first round pick, and the rights to swap first round picks in 2028. They believed it was a big price to pay for a player that wouldn’t move the needle much at all for a middling Celtics team. Needless to say, that analysis has not aged well. White has been a key cog on both ends of the floor since his arrival.
The website fivethirtyeight.com currently projects the Celtics as the favorites by both its RAPTOR player forecast model as well as its Elo ranking system. By RAPTOR the Celtics are given a 33% chance to win the final (implied odds of +203). Elo thinks their likelihood of winning the championship is 29% (implied odds of +245). At +950 I think the value is too great to pass up on putting a little money on the Celtics.
The monkey wrench in the plans happened last week when the Timelord, Celtics center Robert Williams III, suffered a knee injury that could keep him out through the early rounds of the playoffs. Timelord isn’t a center in the mold of Joel Embiid or reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, but very few are. If you don’t have an MVP candidate at the 5 that you can run your offense through, Timelord is the next best thing. He sets hard screens and rolls to the basket and has great finishing ability at the rim. Timelord’s offense is not what will really be missed though. On defense, Williams has lately been assigned to the “Giannis role” where he guards one of the other team’s corner shooters and roams around, getting into passing lanes and rotating to contest shots at the rim. Williams allows the Celtics to throw so many defensive looks at their opponents. He can play drop coverage in pick and roll and contest everything at the rim. He also can switch onto guards and wings and do an excellent job moving his feet to stay in front of them.
Without the Timelord, veterans Al Horford and Daniel Theis will have to absorb a lot of the minutes at center. The Celtics also might play small with Grant Williams or even Jaylen Brown at the 5. This will be a huge problem if they run into a player like Embiid before Timelord returns.
More responsibility will fall on the shoulders of White and Defensive Player of the Year candidate (but sometime offensive liability) Marcus Smart. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the young cornerstones the Celtics have been building around for the last half decade, will have to raise their play to an even higher level than the exceptional one they’ve been at with the Robert Williams injury.
Timelord’s injury complicates matters a great deal and the East playoffs are a minefield to navigate, but the value is there at +950 for the hottest team in the league to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
American League Rookie of the Year
Bobby Witt Jr to win AL ROY (+310 at DraftKings)
Bobby Witt Jr has the bloodlines that seem to be almost a prerequisite anymore for becoming a star in MLB. His father, Bobby Witt Sr, pitched for 16 seasons in the big leagues. Witt Jr was taken with the second overall pick in the 2019 draft out of high school. He took some time to adjust in 2019. He didn’t play at all in 2020 due to the global health crisis but tore apart AA and AAA last year in his age 21 season.
The Royals just announced they plan to not manipulate any service time issues with Witt Jr and he will break camp with the big club and serve as the everyday third baseman to start the season. Witt Jr is a natural shortstop, but the Royals want to give the oft injured Adalberto Mondesi another chance to hold down the position. While his long-term future seems to remain as a shortstop, Witt Jr has the tools to allow him to do well moving down the defensive spectrum at the hot corner.
Unlike another top prospect Spencer Torkelson, an almost exclusively bat tool-oriented player, Witt Jr will provide value both with his electric offense and with his play on defense. FanGraphs ZiPS model projects him to accumulate 3.7 wins above replacement in less than 600 at bats. The most important ability is availability and I think the games projection for Witt is low.
The field is pretty good. Torkelson is an incredible talent in the box. The prospect scouts aren’t as gushing about him as they were about Vlad Jr a few years ago, but they’re incredibly high on him. Adley Rutschman, the face of the eternity long rebuild in Baltimore, will get to the majors sometime this year and I expect him to produce immediately. But don’t be surprised if Baltimore, who have no chance to make the playoffs with or without Rutschman, don’t find a need for him to get more seasoning in the minors before calling him up and starting the clock on his service time until later in the season. Another big name is Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners. A better corner outfielder than Torkelson is a first baseman, Rodriguez won’t impress you as much with the glove as Witt Jr, but he will probably mash big league pitching from day 1.
There is a deep field of contenders for this award in addition to the ones mentioned above. Despite all the competition, I think Bobby Witt Jr is such a special talent he will run away with RoY if given the chance to play everyday on a Royals team that, while the focus is still one or two years down the line, could be in contention for the expanded playoffs for most of the season.
Thanks for reading this issue of Tim’s Reviews and Winners. As always, subscribe and share if you want to.